In November, the domestic polyester staple fiber price continued to be weak and fluctuated downward. According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on November 30 was 7,372 RMB/ton, 4.90% lower than the price of 7,752 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and 2.72% higher than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 6,592 RMB/ton (settlement price 6,586 RMB/ton), down 2.17% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis review
Industrial chain:
1. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over. OPEC+ again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022, and crude oil prices fell in November. At the end of the month, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at 80.55 US dollars/barrel, down about 6.9% for the whole month.
2. In the first ten days of this month, PTA became stronger due to the positive impact of crude oil and its own supply. However, since the middle of November, the new device was about to be launched, the cost was weakening, and the demand was poor. Under the superposition of many bad news, the PTA spot price had declined, the futures trend was stronger than the spot, and the futures had risen slightly throughout the month.
3. The fall in crude oil price had weakened the cost support for ethylene glycol, and the downstream demand had remained sluggish. However, due to the impact of poor efficiency, the unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol had increased recently, and the operating rate remained low. In the case of a large decline in the previous period, the price of ethylene glycol was also at a relatively low level. Ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded slightly throughout the month.
4. The market situation of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn continued to be weak this month, with a small decline in prices and flat trading. The overall de stocking was slow, mainly through negotiation.
On the supply and demand side:
The stocks of staple fiber manufacturers continued to increase this month, and some large factories reduced production. The domestic sales of terminal textiles were weak, while the export sales were poor. Weaving enterprises further reduced the operating rate, and the demand for raw materials continued to be weak, mainly purchased on rigid demand. The production and sales of staple fibers continued to be sluggish, and the price continued to fall.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that the market is still evaluating the impact of future crude oil demand prospects and tight supply and other factors on oil prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will remain volatile, and the cost side of polyester staple fiber may remain volatile. The characteristics of the downstream off-season are obvious, and the terminal demand continues to be weak. It is expected that after December, the phenomenon of textile enterprises giving annual leave in advance will further increase, and the stock of staple fibers may continue to accumulate. The staple fiber market may still fluctuate to be weak in December. Pay attention to changes in raw material prices, dynamic changes in units and fluctuations in downstream orders.
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